IN-PERSON Manchester Livable Cities
Abstract
Extreme temperatures, both heatwaves and cold spells, cause significant mortality and morbidity in urban areas, exacerbated by socio-spatial inequalities in housing, health, infrastructure, and access to green space. As climate change intensifies, these risks increase, particularly for vulnerable populations. This study developed a two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) framework to evaluate thermal resilience across Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in Southampton. Stage 1 applies two DEA models incorporating temporal patterns to evaluate LSOAs for heat and cold resilience. Inputs include exposure indicators (fuel poverty rates, Energy Performance Certificate (EPC)-derived housing energy efficiency, green space access, housing age) and sensitivity measures (% population aged 65+, deprivation, prevalence of chronic illness). Outputs reflect adaptive capacity (proximity to cooling/warming centres, social support, retrofit uptake, vegetation cover) and health outcomes (observed hospital admissions during extreme temperatures). Stage 2 incorporates community insights from the ETHOS (Extreme Temperature and Health OutcomeS) Project, using stakeholder interviews and co-design workshops to interpret model outcomes and generate locally grounded policy recommendations. These insights help contextualise quantitative rankings and highlight barriers and opportunities for inclusive climate adaptation planning. This integrated approach produces GIS-based maps visualising thermal resilience and vulnerability across LSOAs to support planners, public health authorities, and communities. The proposed framework combines quantitative efficiency analysis with participatory methods. It supports cross-sectoral decision-making and contributes to developing just and climate-resilient cities with applicability across the UK and beyond.
Dr Keyvan Hosseini is a Research Fellow at the University of Southampton with a background in management science, industrial engineering and public policy. He holds a PhD in Public Administration and has extensive experience in quantitative and mixed-methods research, including applied statistics, optimisation, and spatial analysis. His research combines quantitative, spatial, and mixed-methods approaches to analyse complex socio-technical systems, with a focus on climate change and just transitions.
Sarah Wilson is a Research Associate at Newcastle University and a qualitative researcher with experience in large digital and environmental health projects. She leads a diverse patient and public involvement group.
Dawn-Marie Walker is an Associate Professor at the University of Southampton and Associate Dean for Equality, Diversity, and Inclusion. She is a mixed-methods researcher specialising in health services research and place-based health inequalities, with over £5 million in grant funding.
Leanne Morrison is an Associate Professor in Psychology at the University of Southampton. Her research focuses on behaviour change interventions to support health self-management in community and primary care settings.
Clare Tolley is a Lecturer in the School of Pharmacy at Newcastle University. She is a Registered Pharmacist, Fellow of the Faculty of Clinical Informatics, and holds a Certificate in Clinical Pharmacy.
Connor Watson is a postgraduate researcher at the University of Southampton with an MS in Mathematics specialising in climate science. His interests include climate-related deprivation, vulnerability, and air quality.
Seyed Maziar Hosseini is a data scientist with an MS in Management Engineering from the Polytechnic University of Milan. His research focuses on sustainability in transport, energy, and supply chains.
Matthew Johnson is a GIS specialist and PhD researcher at the University of Southampton. His ESRC-funded research uses health facility data from Ghana to improve catchment area and population estimates for childhood diarrhoeal disease.
Justin Sheffield is Head of the School of Geography and Environmental Science at the University of Southampton. He has published extensively on hydrological extremes and climate change, and has received major awards including the Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz International Prize and the Plinius Medal. He was named the Robert E. Horton Lecturer in Hydrology by the American Meteorological Society.
1:30 pm - 3:00 pm
Friday 19th June, 2026