VIRTUAL Manchester Livable Cities

Abstract

Global fertility rates have declined across Europe, North America, and East Asia, driven by complex factors beyond traditional economic and demographic explanations. While conventional economic perspectives highlight material constraints, value-based approaches argue that growing economic and personal security fosters post-materialist and environmentalist orientations, reducing reproductive behaviors. Evidence from Northeast China, however, suggests a dual mechanism: post-industrial economic lag and social-environmental insecurity interact with post-materialist values to suppress fertility. This study develops an integrated socio-ecological framework and operationalizes it through a mixed-methods design in Jilin City, a representative post-industrial context. It combines a random survey of 608 reproductive-age individuals with 30 in-depth interviews, linking macro-level structural conditions to micro-level reproductive reasoning. Findings indicate that severe industrial restructuring translates into individual reproductive decisions through intertwined pathways. Economic transition delays increase perceived financial insecurity, making childbearing a high-risk investment and prompting strategies such as delaying or limiting births. Simultaneously, negative evaluations of local social and physical environments reduce fertility intentions. Limiting family size thus emerges not merely as preference but as a strategic allocation of scarce resources, facilitating geographic and social mobility. The study demonstrates that the ‘low fertility trap’ in declining industrial regions results from the combined pressures of material precarity and defensive adoption of post-materialist values. By articulating this dual mechanism, the framework provides a holistic explanation for fertility transitions in contexts where economic modernization, environmental degradation, and value shifts intersect.