VIRTUAL Manchester Livable Cities
Abstract
The earthquakes that hit southern Türkiye on February 6, 2023, caused not only extensive physical destruction but also large-scale population displacement. This study investigates the demographic and spatial effects of the disaster by analyzing population changes in the affected provinces and migration patterns toward major destination cities. The research focuses on four provinces that experienced the most severe impacts: Hatay, Malatya, Kahramanmaraş, and Adıyaman. Using official population statistics along with survey data collected from households affected by the earthquake, the study examines demographic trends before and after the disaster. The empirical findings presented in this paper are based on research conducted within a TÜBİTAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye) funded project analyzing post-earthquake migration patterns and settlement trends. Pre-earthquake demographic analysis shows that while these provinces generally follow national demographic trends such as increasing urbanization and declining fertility, they differ significantly in terms of educational levels, demographic structure, and spatial mobility patterns. Population data indicate that all four provinces experienced measurable population decline between 2020 and 2024 following the earthquakes. However, this demographic change occurred through multiple mechanisms. While some districts experienced substantial population loss due to out-migration, others recorded population increases as displaced residents relocated within the same province. Besides these internal shifts, survey data from migrants who moved to Ankara and Mersin (the two most affected cities in migration flows) show that displaced populations usually settle in districts with better access to housing, jobs, and urban services. The findings show that disaster-induced migration changes both sending and receiving cities.
Ela Ataç Kavurmacı is a Professor and Head of the Department of City and Regional Planning at TED University in Ankara, Türkiye. Her research focuses on urban geography, population geography, urban sociology, residential segregation, and spatial inequalities in cities. She employs both qualitative and quantitative methods in urban and regional studies. Her work has been published in several national and international academic journals, addressing socio-spatial segregation, urban inequality, and demographic change in Turkish cities.
Zeynep Eraydın
Elif Merve Nalçakar