IN-PERSON Barcelona Livable Cities. Section B

Abstract

Jakarta, one of the fastest-growing cities in Southeast Asia, faces an unprecedented challenge as a sinking city. Rapid urbanisation, frequent flooding, land subsidence, and sea-level rise have intensified vulnerabilities for the city’s urban poor and marginalised communities. The interplay between unregulated groundwater extraction, inadequate urban planning, and the growing impacts of climate change further exacerbates the crisis, putting immense pressure on infrastructure and communities. By addressing these multifaceted challenges, there is an urgent need to understand the interconnected drivers of Jakarta’s flood vulnerability. In this study, we combine remote sensing data (land subsidence, night light, development index), socio-demographic data (population, poverty) and physical/environmental data (water body, land cover) to model the occurrence of historical floods in Jakarta, especially the coastal North Jakarta region as the forefront of the sinking Jakarta. Using a series of regression and spatial analysis techniques, including the local model Geographically Weighted Regression and Machine Learning approaches (including Random Forest, XGBoost and SVM), the study explores the relationship between flood vulnerability and the sociodemographic and environmental drivers of flood vulnerability. This is discussed in relation to the effectiveness of the seawall projects and various policy implementations. Jakarta’s experience could offer insights into mitigation, adaptation, or inaction relevant to other coastal megacities experiencing a sinking phenomenon. The findings aim to provide actionable, multidimensional solutions to enhance Jakarta’s resilience and sustainability, addressing the urgent need for integrated approaches amidst the mounting development pressures.