IN-PERSON Barcelona Livable Cities. Section B

Abstract

Crime reduction is one of the crucial issues in cities. Recently Ogletree et al. (2022), Venter et al. (2022) and Saraiva and Teixeira (2023) showed that green spaces could contribute to crime reduction. However, these studies are conducted in Europe and north and south America. This study aims to test the hypothesis that green spaces are associated with violent and property crime rate (per capita) in Tokyo, Japan. We used the data on the number of crimes reported to the Metropolitan Police Department in 4,774 districts in 2010, 2015 and 2020. Summer and winter NDVI values were collected from satellite imagery as an indicator of green spaces. We also collected socio-economic variables, such as the percentage of foreigners and high school graduates which has been point out as associated factors for crimes. Due to strong correlations among crime rates, NDVI, and population density, we applied a spatial mixed effects model accounting for spatial correlation to analyze the interaction between NDVI and population density on crime rates. The results indicated that while the effect of NDVI on violent crime was inconclusive, higher NDVI was significantly associated with lower property crime rates. The sum of NDVI in summer and winter model showed the minimum BIC among summer, winter and the subtraction models. Other variables also significantly influenced crime. A positive correlation with the previous term crime rate and the daytime to nighttime population ratio. Our results support urban greening as a major strategy for achieving more just and sustainable cities and towns.